Kalshi and Polymarket both run markets on these races. When they price the same real-world outcome differently, that gap is real information — not a calibration verdict, just what each market currently believes, side by side.
Biggest disagreement
Kalshi and Polymarket disagree most on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — a 3.9-point gap.
Polymarket prices it at 19.9%; Kalshi at 16.0%. Across all candidates, the venues agree within ~0.4 points on average.
Prices as of Sep 2, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC — our last fetch.
Kalshi Polymarket Notable gap
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3.9 pt gap
16.0%
19.9%
Mark Kelly2.0 pt gap
5.1%
3.1%
Andy Beshear1.1 pt gap
3.6%
2.5%
Mark Cuban1.1 pt gap
1.6%
0.5%
Wes Moore1.0 pt gap
2.5%
1.6%
Rahm Emanuel0.9 pt gap
3.6%
2.6%
James Talarico0.9 pt gap
1.6%
2.5%
Jon Ossoff0.8 pt gap
17.0%
16.3%
Dwayne Johnson0.5 pt gap
0.1%
0.7%
Gavin Newsom0.5 pt gap
14.0%
14.5%
Kamala Harris0.5 pt gap
8.2%
7.7%
Raphael Warnock0.5 pt gap
1.0%
0.5%
Michelle Obama0.3 pt gap
1.1%
0.8%
Ro Khanna0.3 pt gap
1.9%
2.3%
J.B. Pritzker0.3 pt gap
1.4%
1.1%
Elissa Slotkin0.3 pt gap
0.5%
0.3%
Stephen A. Smith0.3 pt gap
0.5%
0.3%
Chris Murphy0.2 pt gap
0.6%
0.4%
Gretchen Whitmer0.2 pt gap
0.9%
0.7%
Roy Cooper0.1 pt gap
0.2%
0.4%
Ruben Gallego0.1 pt gap
0.4%
0.3%
Zohran Mamdani0.1 pt gap
0.1%
0.3%
Bernie Sanders0.1 pt gap
0.4%
0.5%
Pete Buttigieg0.1 pt gap
5.4%
5.5%
Josh Shapiro0.1 pt gap
5.0%
5.1%
Andrew Yang0.1 pt gap
0.1%
0.1%
Barack Obama0.1 pt gap
0.3%
0.3%
Beto O'Rourke0.1 pt gap
0.2%
0.1%
Gina Raimondo0.1 pt gap
0.1%
0.1%
Graham Platner0.1 pt gap
0.1%
0.1%
Hillary Clinton0.1 pt gap
0.1%
0.1%
Jared Polis0.1 pt gap
0.2%
0.1%
Jasmine Crockett0.1 pt gap
0.2%
0.1%
John Fetterman0.1 pt gap
0.2%
0.1%
LeBron James0.1 pt gap
0.1%
0.1%
Liz Cheney0.1 pt gap
0.2%
0.1%
Phil Murphy0.1 pt gap
0.1%
0.1%
Tim Walz0.1 pt gap
0.1%
0.1%
Cory Booker0.0 pt gap
0.6%
0.7%
Hunter Biden0.0 pt gap
0.4%
0.4%
Jon Stewart0.0 pt gap
0.5%
0.5%
On freshness: the “prices as of” line above is when we last polled both venues — deliberately not Kalshi’s own updated_time. Investigating that field while building this page, we found it clusters in bulk timestamps across unrelated markets rather than tracking individual trading activity, so it would misrepresent staleness rather than reveal it. Inactive candidates (markets that closed or were delisted since our last registry check) are omitted entirely rather than shown stale. This is a live comparison, not a calibration verdict — that layer comes next.